BTC price analysis – after the price quake

After reaching a new all-time high of EUR 2,666.46 (USD 2,985.77), the price plummeted over the next few days to EUR 2,247.81 (USD 2,516.99).

Summary of the Bitcoin loophole

The Bitcoin loophole course has fallen over the week: On June 12, the Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high of EUR 2,666.46 (USD 2,985.77). Since then, the price has been in a downtrend, which was tested on 14 June and is currently being tested at a price of EUR 2,247.81 (USD 2,516.99).

Even a bull run has to come to an at least temporary end. The Bitcoin exchange rate tested the 3,000 US dollars once again on 12 June, but fell dramatically afterwards. We have commented on this current downtrend in several places, so hopefully I won’t have to repeat the perseverance slogans. Here we look at the charts!

We see that the share price has been following a downtrend since 12 June. On 12th and 14th – 15th June there were two very strong price drops, but since then the Bitcoin price has been able to repeat itself partially. It entered a rather bullish triangle pattern and is currently testing the mentioned downtrend. Currently the most important support is the EMA24, which is also currently performing a bullish crossing with the EMA48.

For the prognosis whether the downtrend can be broken we look at the indicators:

The MACD (second panel from above) is now positive again. The MACD line (blue) is slightly above the signal (orange), respectively is currently performing a bullish crossing.

With 58 the RSI (third panel from above) is clearly bullish.

All in all the signs are bullish, which gives hope regarding the resistance from the downtrend. This hope is also needed, as can be seen from the medium- and long-term developments.

The long-term price development
The 240min chart is the first to provide further guidance on future developments:

The blue line drawn is the uptrend since May – we see that it has been breached. It can also be seen that a head-and-shoulders pattern was formed in June, which ultimately heralded the end of the downtrend so far. EMA42 and EMA48 are currently above price and represent important resistances. More importantly, the EMA42 and EMA84 are currently performing a bearish crossing: Should EMA42 fall below EMA84, this would be a sign for a more stable position of the price below the two moving averages.

The MACD is of course negative after the last few days, but the MACD line has risen above the signal. The RSI is clearly bearish with 47. In the medium term the situation looks bearish.

Finally, let’s look at the 1D chart:

Here, the trend since the end of October and since May are marked as supports. As shown before, the trend followed since May has been broken, but the trend followed since October is still far, far away. The EMA31 is currently being tested – the EMA61 was even tested at short notice. Both moving averages represent important supports.

The MACD remains positive, but the MACD line has dropped significantly below the signal. Likewise, the RSI is only slightly bullish with 51.

Overall, the outlook is bearish, especially regarding the 240min chart. A glimmer of hope is the development on the 60min chart: We will have to see if the price can breach the current downtrend. However, the price, trend and indicators on the 60min chart support this positive forecast. Whether this will be enough to turn the longer-term trend back into bullish, however, cannot be said yet.