BTC price analysis – after the price quake

After reaching a new all-time high of EUR 2,666.46 (USD 2,985.77), the price plummeted over the next few days to EUR 2,247.81 (USD 2,516.99).

Summary of the Bitcoin loophole

The Bitcoin loophole course has fallen over the week: On June 12, the Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high of EUR 2,666.46 (USD 2,985.77). Since then, the price has been in a downtrend, which was tested on 14 June and is currently being tested at a price of EUR 2,247.81 (USD 2,516.99).

Even a bull run has to come to an at least temporary end. The Bitcoin exchange rate tested the 3,000 US dollars once again on 12 June, but fell dramatically afterwards. We have commented on this current downtrend in several places, so hopefully I won’t have to repeat the perseverance slogans. Here we look at the charts!

We see that the share price has been following a downtrend since 12 June. On 12th and 14th – 15th June there were two very strong price drops, but since then the Bitcoin price has been able to repeat itself partially. It entered a rather bullish triangle pattern and is currently testing the mentioned downtrend. Currently the most important support is the EMA24, which is also currently performing a bullish crossing with the EMA48.

For the prognosis whether the downtrend can be broken we look at the indicators:

The MACD (second panel from above) is now positive again. The MACD line (blue) is slightly above the signal (orange), respectively is currently performing a bullish crossing.

With 58 the RSI (third panel from above) is clearly bullish.

All in all the signs are bullish, which gives hope regarding the resistance from the downtrend. This hope is also needed, as can be seen from the medium- and long-term developments.

The long-term price development
The 240min chart is the first to provide further guidance on future developments:

The blue line drawn is the uptrend since May – we see that it has been breached. It can also be seen that a head-and-shoulders pattern was formed in June, which ultimately heralded the end of the downtrend so far. EMA42 and EMA48 are currently above price and represent important resistances. More importantly, the EMA42 and EMA84 are currently performing a bearish crossing: Should EMA42 fall below EMA84, this would be a sign for a more stable position of the price below the two moving averages.

The MACD is of course negative after the last few days, but the MACD line has risen above the signal. The RSI is clearly bearish with 47. In the medium term the situation looks bearish.

Finally, let’s look at the 1D chart:

Here, the trend since the end of October and since May are marked as supports. As shown before, the trend followed since May has been broken, but the trend followed since October is still far, far away. The EMA31 is currently being tested – the EMA61 was even tested at short notice. Both moving averages represent important supports.

The MACD remains positive, but the MACD line has dropped significantly below the signal. Likewise, the RSI is only slightly bullish with 51.

Overall, the outlook is bearish, especially regarding the 240min chart. A glimmer of hope is the development on the 60min chart: We will have to see if the price can breach the current downtrend. However, the price, trend and indicators on the 60min chart support this positive forecast. Whether this will be enough to turn the longer-term trend back into bullish, however, cannot be said yet.

Review: belonged to the Bitcoin formula vending machines

In October 2013, the world’s first Bitcoin ATM was installed at the Waves Coffeehouse in Vancouver, Canada. It was also the beginning of a battles between Bitcoin ATM manufacturers for the market dominance of a new industry.

Now only 13 months later the number of Bitcoin formula ATMs and vending machine manufacturers has almost exploded

Vending machines worth several million euros have already been installed and more and more competitors are entering the market. The following map shows how many machines have already been installed in Europe alone. The largest growth in 2014 was recorded in North America. Europe, on the other hand, accounts for about 31% of the cake, whereas Asia has proved to be a big laggard with 19% in July. Asia also lost 6% points, as of today. ATM 1 business locations have proven to be the most popular location for Bitcoin formula vending machines worldwide. Coffee shops and restaurants are also well ahead here. Here is the detailed review about the Bitcoin formula.

ATM 3At the beginning of the vending machine era, there were two dominant Bitcoin vending machine manufacturers: Lamassu, the lightweight Bitcoin vending machine, and Robocoin, the supplier of free-standing 2-way vending machines. Today, there are already a large number of vending machine manufacturers on the market who all try to distinguish themselves from each other in some way and to stand out with new functions.

Lamassu dominated the market with a third market share for a long time. However, this is slowly changing and the manufacturer lost 6% points within only half a year.

Robocoin, on the other hand, lost 3% points between July and December

Bitaccess (14% market share) and Skyhook (18% market share) in particular were able to catch up and gain market share. Skyhook’s low-cost and open-source models seem to have quickly gained popularity with growth of 11%.

ATM 4With a look at the growth of Bitcoin vending machines, we can also observe various trends. The initial market dominance of Lamassu vending machines is beginning to weaken. Lamassu has to watch out for Skyhook. Skyhook’s growth does not seem to be slowing down at the moment.

Robocoin has been struggling for months with stagnating growth; despite new software, angry customers are complaining about defective vending machines and late deliveries.

BitAccess seems to have developed a good growth model and is also slowly but surely climbing to the top of the charts. This month, the vending machine manufacturer could even displace Robocoin from third place.

ATM 5The battle for the market dominance of the Bitcoin vending machine manufacturers does not seem to be over yet. But one thing seems to be certain, the Bitcoin vending machines or Bitcoin ATMs seem to be gaining popularity and are gradually spreading all over the world.

Bitcoin news: Confirmation from Texas

On 13 June, John M. Griffin and Amin Shams then dealt in their study “Is Bitcoin Really Un-Tethered?” with the relationship between the Bitcoin price and the issue of the stable coin. The two researchers from the University of Texas came to a similar conclusion as the report at the beginning of the year – namely that there was a striking correlation between the stable coin and Bitcoin:

“From March 1, 2017 to March 31, 2018, the actual Bitcoin price rises from around 1,190 US dollars to 7,000 US dollars – a return of 488 percent. In contrast, if the 87 tether-related hours are excluded, the price series ends at around 4,100 US dollars, which corresponds to an increase of 245 percent. Therefore, the hours with the strongest tether flow, which account for less than one percent of the period, seem to be associated with 50 percent of Bitcoin’s buy-and-hold revenue.”

The Bitcoin news report also featured a possible tether management floor motif:

“[…] if the Tether founders, like most early crypto currency buyers and exchanges, hold Bitcoin news over the long term, they have a strong incentive to create artificial demand for Bitcoin news and other crypto currencies by “printing” Tether. Similar to the inflationary effect of printing extra money, this can drive up crypto currency prices. Second, the coordinated provision of tether creates the possibility to manipulate crypto currencies. When prices fall, the tether creators can convert their tether into Bitcoin so that Bitcoin is pushed up.
Then they swap Bitcoin back into US dollars to replenish the tether reserves as the Bitcoin price rises.”

A lot of wind for nothing?

Recently the VWL trade magazine “Economic Letters” published a report that takes a stand for the stable coin. The author, Wang Chun Wei, had already published his paper on SSRN in May. After it initially received little attention there, public interest grew with its inclusion in the October issue of Economic Letters.

In the report “The Impact of Tether Grants on Bitcoin”, Wei Bitcoin and Tether also perform a statistical analysis. Using a vector autoregressive model (VAR), Wei arrives at the result:

“Our paper does not examine whether the newly issued tether tokens are actually backed by US dollars or not, but we examine the effects of these crypto currency issues on the later crypto currency exchange rate. In summary, we find no evidence that USDT issuance will lead to a later rise in Bitcoin yields.”

At the same time, the report notes that stable coin issuances could increase Bitcoin’s (and Tether’s) trading volume in the short term. Here the report explicitly agrees with the results of the January anonymous report.

Furthermore, it can be assumed that Tether Limited will make the issue of new tokens dependent on the situation on the Bitcoin market.

Conclusion: No complete rehabilitation for the stable coin
The study does not succeed in completely eliminating the accusations of manipulation against Tether (and Bitfinex). The applied VAR model has a thinner data basis than the analysis of Griffin and Shams. In addition, Griffin and Shams not only knew about Weis’s results, they also cited his report as sources. Although not all of these 45 references used by the Texas researchers are meaningful technical literature, they are not. Nevertheless, the sources and data of Griffin and Shams provide a more convincing picture than Weis Report. This is not only shorter, but is based on only six sources – one of which he is himself.

Also the argumentation of the anonymous report with the different statistical procedures, which are partly also used in the financial forensics, is not taken up by Weis Report. Finally, the fact that the results of Griffin and Shams are in some places almost identical to those of the January Report speaks for the manipulation thesis.

eGifter and GoCoin partnership accepts Litecoin and Dogecoin payments

The American company eGifter is about to accept two more digital currencies as means of payment. Thanks to the cooperation with the payment platform GoCoin, eGifter will soon also accept Litecoin and Dogecoin as means of payment. eGifter already accepts Bitcoins for the purchase of eGifter gift cards, which gives the customer access to over 100 brands. Among them also big names like Amazon, Gap or Walmart.

Although there are already many providers who accept Bitcoins, the acceptance of Lite or Dogecoins as means of payment still lags somewhat behind. Dogecoins, for example, are usually only used as micropayments or as a reward or donation. Nevertheless, for the fact that the Dogecoin was only a joke at the beginning, it has got a remarkable degree of popularity and the community around the Dogecoin continues to grow steadily.

Although the price of a Dogecoin is negligibly low compared to the price of a Bitcoin, the influence of the Dogecoin is getting bigger and bigger and thus takes its next logical step with the introduction at GocOin.

Short process for the crypto rader

The Singapore-based company GoCoin has accepted the crypto trader Litecoin since January and only recently introduced the Dogecoin. Steve Beauregard, founder of GoCoin said to “We are thrilled to see the trade of the Bitcoin ecosystem welcoming the Altcoins with open arms. Together with eGifter, we are building an important bridge between commerce and the digital currency”.

The partnership means that eGifter is not directly involved in the acceptance of digital currencies. GoCoin accepts the digital currencies, converts them to Fiat currencies and then forwards them.

As a result, eGifter has few points of contact with security-related issues such as the storage of Bitcoins and is also protected against the volatility of digital currencies through the direct exchange into Fiat currencies.

This move also means that if the digital currencies continue their triumphal procession, the companies will reap their rewards.

The rise of the gift card

eGifter is one of many vendors that allow Bitcoin users to access many popular brands without having to accept digital currencies directly from the merchant.

Snap Card gives its customers access to Amazon and eBay with its gift card. Even the tax can be paid in this way.

With Gyft Gift Cards, customers can purchase Walmart or Dell products.

eGifters introduction of the Lite- and Dogecoins seems to be a smart move towards the future with the ever increasing acceptance of digital currencies.

“Is the old dog still alive?” – Dogecoin and the Bitcoin secret

It is spring 2014, the media are talking about Bitcoin. Silk Road and the intervention by the FBI put Bitcoin in a bad light for the masses. In the midst of this hustle and bustle, the Dogecoin (pronounced “dosch-koin”) was born.

What is the Bitcoin secret anyway?

It would still be too early to speak of “digital currencies” as a generic term. Just as “Facebook” is the synonym for the “Internet” for old people, Bitcoin secret is still the synonym for digital currencies. Those who missed the hype about Bitcoin secret quickly looked for Altcoins – alternative digital currencies – to participate in the next big movement.

It is at this point that most of the Dogecoin Holders among you will have joined.

Now there are a few specific questions that need to be answered.

For newbies:

Why do I see this immense high on CoinMarketCap?
Is it still worth investing in Dogecoin?
And for current Holder:

What is the current situation in the Dogecoin community?
Is it worth keeping my Dogecoins?
Of course, some questions overlap here. If you have one of these questions, you can now look forward to a convenient summary and a look into the future. If you have nothing to do with all this, you can still read on. Dogecoin is closely linked to Internet culture and represents a piece of history in the crypto currency sector.

Much Beginning

This strange spelling can be found everywhere in the Dogecoin community. The English words “Much” (“very”, “many” in the sense of numerous), “Very” (“very” for adjectives) or “Search” (“such”) are usually placed before another English word to translate the phrase into the “language of Doge”. Doge phrases are usually ended with a dot and rounded off by a “Wow!” (“Beginning” alone would only mean “beginning”). But with “Much” in front of it, it is clearly recognizable as a Doge sentence. Wow!)

One must imagine that these sentences are spoken by a dog. Those of you who have nothing to do with Internet culture are gradually losing the connection (and that’s not bad, hold out and you’ll get a light on it), for the others it’s nothing new.

Very Doge

Yes… yes, indeed, that dog.

A Shiba-Inu who was worshipped by the internet and to whom one attributed a simple language (therefore the partly intentionally misspelled terms).

In the midst of this hypes, which mainly concerned the social media platform Reddit, programmer Billy Markus and Adobe System Maketing employee Jackson Palmer thought it was funny to build a TOTAL crypto currency with the fun and memes of Doge.

…Dogecoin was born…

Search Hype
In the following time, Dogecoin broke the sound barrier, flew faster than light, and tore up the space-time continuum of the Internet (at least that’s how it felt to long-established bitcoiners).

During this time the expression “To the mooon! was coined. The market capitalization rose completely unexpectedly to 60 million US dollars (January 2014). For a “fun currency” a pretty solid figure.

Monero (XMR): Fees drop to minimum after cryptosoft

The transaction fees at Privacy Coin Monero are currently at their lowest level. After the last update on October 18, the Hard Fork Beryllium Bullet was able to improve the network’s performance. Transactions are now cheaper overall and require less storage space.

Monero received another cryptosoft

The most important innovation of the Hard Fork Beryllium Bullet was the optimization of the cryptosoft used in Monero for Ring Confidential cryptosoft transactions. In short: Bulletproofs.

Roughly speaking, the aim is to ensure that the units sent are actually issued in the crypto currency. True to the motto “Privacy first”, however, at the same time it must be ensured that the true amount of the transaction is concealed. Without this mechanism, attackers with special transactions could create new coins and thus trigger uncontrolled inflation. (You can read more about this here).

The hard fork (which takes place twice a year in the Monero network, by the way) should also bring one thing above all: Transactions that require less storage space and are cheaper. This has now proven to be the case.

The average transaction costs of the Privacy Coin are currently 0.02 US dollars – as low as they were last in 2016 – and that is currently 3,586,000 transactions. This means that transaction fees have fallen by over 90 percent since the bulletproof update.

Monero price (XMR)

Monero is currently turning into a low-cost alternative when it comes to sending money. In comparison: The average transaction fees at Bitcoin are currently around 0.38 US dollars.

In the XMR price, however, the update has not made itself felt at Monero so far. Although the XMR price rose from 107 US dollars to 109 US dollars for a short time after the update, the weekly XMR price has remained stable. In the course of the week, however, it fell by almost five percent. Over the course of a month, the XMR has to absorb 13.36 percent of losses. At present, this is just under 105 US dollars.

Altcoin market analysis – XRP and Stellar present their latest results

The total market capitalization has fallen to 209 billion US dollars. For the most part, the prices of the top 10 crypto currencies have hardly changed. With a price increase of almost ten percent, Stellar is an exception – followed by Ripple.

Name Exchange rate in US dollars Market capitalization in billions of US dollars Exchange rate change within the week in percent Exchange rate estimation Support US dollars Resistance in US dollars

The price development of the ten crypto currencies with the highest market capitalisation, which is expressed in billions of US dollars, is shown. The sideways trend that characterizes the crypto market continues. One cannot see a big change in the market capitalization, it has fallen from 211 billion US dollars to 209 billion US dollars. “Falling” is actually the wrong term: it currently oscillates around 210 billion US dollars. The tether tragedy that shaped last week seems almost forgotten at the moment; although the tether exchange rate is not at one US dollar, at 0.98 US dollars it is not far from it. This sideways movement can be seen in the price developments. With the exception of Stellar and Ripple, whose prices have risen by ten and five percent respectively, little has happened with the other crypto currencies. A glance at the respective charts also largely leads to a neutral assessment. So before you venture into a long or short position, you should wait and see whether one of the resistances or supports indicated will be breached.

Best price performance: Stellar (XLM)

In times of general sideways movements one is pleased nevertheless about a price rise of ten per cent. Only XRP was able – with only five percent – to come close to the rise in the Stellar price. In the course of this small rally, the price climbed above the exponential moving average EMA50 and is currently at the level of the EMA200. A positive, rising MACD and an RSI at 55 speak a bullish language overall. Therefore, a long position is a good choice, where the support at 0.24 US dollars can be used as a stop loss and the resistances at 0.28 US dollars and 0.32 US dollars as targets. A fall below the stop loss should not be chosen immediately as an invitation for a short position; only a fall below the second support at 0.21 US dollars can be used as an entry signal to target at 0.19 US dollars and 0.18 US dollars. A stop loss of 0.21 US Dollars is a good choice for this.

Worst price development: Litecoin (LTC)

The Litecoin price did not fall low with minus three percent, but for the title “Loser of the Week” this is sufficient. In any case, the litecoin price is not simply below the exponentially moving average MA50, but currently at the level of early November 2017. The year-end rally has been undone accordingly. Currently, the MACD line (blue) is trying to rise above the support, but the MACD is still in negative territory overall. Likewise, the RSI is at 42 – with a bearish tendency. Thus, a bearish impression results overall. However, before choosing a short position, you should wait to see if the price can undercut the support at 49.90 US dollars. If this happens, you can open a short position where the stop loss is 51.43 US dollars and the target is 41.02 US dollars. Should the price actually rise above the resistance at 58.30 US dollars, a long position is the best option, where the target is at 67.58 US dollars and the stop loss at 55.97 US dollars.

Stability of the Top 10
In any case it is interesting that the gap between XRP and Ethereum has fallen to 16 percent. Otherwise Stellar tries to dispute EOS the fifth place in the Top 10: Only eight per cent in terms of market capitalization separate the two crypto currencies. Should Cardano be able to rise by four per cent, the crypto currency could rise above tether. Monero is only 13 percent behind Cardano, so flippening can also be expected here. After all, Monero must also fear for tenth place in the top 10, since Tron’s market capitalization is only nine percent behind that of Monero. You can see: In the Top 10, the week can still change a bit in many places.